I think now that some republicans could be in trouble with the events of the sex scandal that put down Foley. Foley a representative that sent private messages and instant messages to a child.
First the Governors race
I still thing that Tim Pawlenty will win. It will be a close race however.
here is the numbers
Pawlenty 53%
Hatch 42%
The rest split between other candidates. Also look for Lourey to get some votes because her supports will not give up.
8th congressional district.
I think that Oberstar will win. I hope people open there ears and eyes. Oberstar is saying he is being attacked yet the his challenger has the facts about his record. Yet Oberstar will not address the issues.
This is one race that I think the Foley effect could make a difference. I wonder how much it will affect the race, also who it will help most if anyone. It could give a small boast to Welty as some people may vote in protest.
Numbers,
Oberstar 56%
Grams 32%
Welty 12%
I was once hoping this race would be closer but at this point I am not sure it will be. We will have to wait and see. Also my thoughts may change.
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3 comments:
John,
In the 8th I think you are wrong.
I would be astounded if Welty breaks 5% of the vote, and if Grams gets only 32%.
My guess is Grams will be around 40-45%, Welty around 2-3%, and Oberstar around 56%.
Pawlenty will win, but I doubt he'll break 50%
Erik,
I hope you are right. For some reason I just have a gut feeling that it will not be close. I hope that Grams does get 45% or better maybe even win, I at this point don't think it will happen.
I do kind of agree with you on Welty and here is why. I think he has some issues by only dealing with the war. The bigger issue is however that he is only focusing on the Duluth and a very small area around and that just will not get a big vote count.
I am a little worried however about the affect the scandal will have on all republicans.
I hope lots of people vote for Welty in protest. :D
I'd vote for Grams before Oberstar in a minute. But I think Grams will just play his expected role in the party power voting, even though he makes himself out to be independent minded. His past voting record speaks for itself. We don't need more of that in DC, in my opinion. We need to get back to moderation, civility and bipartisanship.
I recently listened to this John Danforth interview: http://speakingoffaith.publicradio.org/programs/danforth/index.shtml
He was my Senator when I lived in Missouri. A true class act, and the kind of Republican we need.
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